My team projections, published a few days ago, are a bit of a black box.  I take the player projections and adjust them by my depth charts, which are not published and I have no intention of publishing them.  The reason being is that they aren't going to be that good.  I don't want to publish depth charts and have people pick them apart, telling me "You've got player A getting 300 AB but the manager hates his guts and he'll be in AAA all year" or some such.  I might investigate that and find it to be true, value could be added.

The problem is, I don't have time for that.  I am not going to spend a month of my baseball researching time trying to get the team projections just right.  So I call them just good enough and go with them.  I've been using the same process for a few years now and I seem to get the standings as close as anybody else.  (Don't take my word for it.)

I've thought of a way to make the predictions more open source, simpler, and it should be unbiased as well.  I thank Dave Cameron and his recent comments about the Mariner offense for the idea.  Take the R150 projections for the expected starting lineup.  Assume that everyone is healthy for every team, and that bench players taking up the other 12 games are average (or at least the same for every team).  I'm thinking for the pitcher counterpart I should look at 5 starting pitchers (figure runs above average for 200 innings) per team and maybe the top 2 relievers (since they will be the ones with the most leverage).

At this point we are deep into a Lake Wobegone league, where every team is above average (well, sorry Kansas City).  But that's OK.  Take these super-optimistic teams, play them in a schedule against each other using the odds ratio, and see what W-L records result.  This is your correction, and all the teams together will have to add up to .500

I will do this for both leagues, and make it open source.  Maybe even have it done in the next two days since I'm still snowed in.  But I will start with the American League offense, from the mighty Yankees at the top, to the very good top rivals in the AL East and Minnesota Twins, to good offenses in Anaheim and Cleveland, all the way down to the pathetic offenses.

There will be no secrets here, you can click on every team page and add them up yourself, but in case of any confusion I will later publish a spreadsheet telling who I have picked as the starter for each team and position.

Yankees +167

Ray +136

Twins +127

Red Sox +120

Indians +101 

Angels +98

Rangers, Orioles +60

Jays +30

White Sox +28

A's +20

Mariners +11

Tigers +8

Royals -23

It is not easy for me to post this.  For the first time since 2006, I am not picking the Angels to finish in first place.  I don't think they are out of the race at all.  The 5 game difference between them and the Rangers is well within the range of error.  Both Western divisions as well as the American League central are "anything goes" divisions, All of the teams should consider themselves as having a chance if things break right.

For the Angels to beat this projection (and they usually do beat my projections) they'll need Kendry Morales to prove 2009 was no fluke, Howie Kendrick to finally play a full season and do so without going into a batting funk, Brandon Wood to justify the faith the organization has placed in him after three years of AAA, Ervin Santana to get his velocity back to where it was in 2008, and Scott Kazmir to get back to where he was in 2007.  Really, if 3 out of those 5 things happen the Angels should be strong.

When you play that optimistic "what if" game though, you have to consider what happens if things break right for your opponents too.  What if Vladimir Guerrero, who hit .300 and slugged .498 in the second half, is free from injury and takes advantage of his hitter's paradise?  What if the real Josh Hamilton is the one who looked like a superstar in 2008 instead of the medical case of 2009?  What if Elvis Andrus, only 20 last year, breaks out as the next superstar shortstop?

If things go right for Texas, they have the talent to go to their first ever world series.

Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life.  We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won't win that many games.

But yet I'm projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions.  I think this is the highest projection I've ever had, for any team.  I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6.  I like the moves they have made in the last year.  Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties).  Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus.  The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual.  The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.

The Twins already looked to be the favorites once more in the central, but upgraded by a win or two yesterday by adding the O-Dog, Orlando Hudson.  He will keep the group of Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, and Alexi Casilla from playing more, which can only help.  And hopefully tells Joe Mauer they want to win and convinces him to sign an extension.

Philadelphia might have blown it by trading Cliff Lee instead of Joe Blanton.  Halladay/Lee would have been the best 1-2 combo since Johnson/Schilling.  We'll see if they can hold off a very strong Atlanta club.

Thanks to resigning Matt Holliday, the St Louis Pujols should have a comfortable season in the NL central.  Most of the teams in that division don't spend enough money to compete.  Then there are the Cubs and Astros, who have spent on some real albatrosses.  I like the young talent in Cincinnati, but they probably aren't ready to challenge prince Albert just yet.

Projected Standings

He's a big offensive upgrade on Paul Janish, but gives back those runs in the field.  Cabrera did not play well in the field in 2009, which should not be unexpected for a 35 year old.  I'm sure Orlando doesn't think he's lost anything, but the athlete is always the last to know.  So he waited all winter until he could find a the one team that wasn't going to move him to second or make him a utility infielder.

Janish is not any kind of a hitter, but in the field combines excellent hands (.991 fielding %, only 3 errors) with a strong arm (89 MPH fastball off the mound) for a TotalZone projection of +5. 

I like this move, mostly because Tejada was one of my favorites while he was with the team.  He comes back at a reasonable price and one year deal, so Josh Bell or Brandon Snyder are not blocked if they are ready in a year.  The Oriole lineup is looking decent right now.  I'm not sold on Garrett Atkins at first base, since he was horrible last season.  There's a chance he can bounce back a bit, but I've got him projected as an average hitter and you'd like more than that at first base.  I wish they had signed Russ Branyan instead, I doubt he'll command any more money than Atkins did.  Another option would be to move Nolan Reimold to first, doing so would open up left field for Felix Pie, a much better defender, and by the projections no worse a hitter than Atkins.  Tejada is projected at -2 runs defensively at third, that's just a guess based on average position conversions and a guy who's become a below average SS due to age.  Tejada seems like the kind of player (quick reactions, great arm, not much foot speed) who would take to third base well. 

I've added a few projections just out of curiosity in the case that they wind up getting any chances to play in St. Louis this season.

First off, Jim Edmonds.  There has to be more error in projecting a guy who didn't play last season than there is for the average player, but in my defense I was pretty close on Sammy Sosa when he came back for the 2007 season.  The good news is Edmonds doesn't project any worse than another lefty hitting outfielder who came up with the Angels in the mid 90's, Garret Anderson.  The bad news is he doesn't project any better than Anderson.  Jim is now listed with the free agents.

Now for a real shot in the dark, Mark McGwire.  How do you project a 46 year old player who hasn't played in 9 years?  I had to modify my program just to allow it to do a projection from 2001 data, and for a scary moment, I broke the CHONE system - got an overflow error in Access if you know what I mean.  I've cleaned things up, and hopefully nothing I've done affects anyone else's projection. Big Mac's projection is on the Cardinal page.  I can't claim any accuracy, I have no freaking clue what to expect, but if this is it, might as well just let the pitcher hit for himself.