I didn't expect the Padres to come out at #1, but it makes sense. It's more than getting Mason Miller, a great reliever added to an already strong bullpen. The Padres have gotten almost nothing out of their catchers and left fielders. There is room for improvement at DH. They added the perfect mix of what they needed in Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano, and Freddy Fermin. Fermin was stuck in a job share with Salvador Perez in KC, but he looks like a really good catcher, both offensively and defensively. The only question is if he's durable enough to handle a full time role. Padres will find out.

The Angels didn't move the dial at all, merely picking up a few depth relievers and not doing anything for the lineup. The sad part is, they didn't add any prospects to a weak farm system. They can chase .500 for the rest of the year, but an opportunity to strengthen the organization and put a real contender on the field has passed.

Minnesota traded about half of their active roster, and as expected they are towards the bottom. Arizona however takes the least improved spot. They traded two strong corner infield bats in Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, both sent to Seattle in separate deals. They also traded Merrill Kelly, their most effective starting pitcher this season.

Here are all the teams:

He is now 42 years old and 38 wins away. It seems especially difficult considering he might have a fork sticking out of his back. Most pitchers who have a 5.48 ERA at age 41 are looking into alternative careers at age 42.

But the idea of Justin getting 38 more wins is not unprecedented. There have been 7 pitchers to win more than 38 games after they turned 42.

Phil Niekro, Jamie Moyer, Jack Quinn, Nolan Ryan, Bartolo Colon, Charlie Hough, and Randy Johnson. Three of them are knuckleballers, so cross them off. Jamie Moyer is the complete opposite of Verlander as a pitcher, so forget him too. That leaves 3 who were elite power pitchers like Justin has been.

Wins through age 41: 

Ryan 273

Johnson 263

Verlander 262

Colon 204

Verlander would be a 300 game winner, or at least right on the edge of the milestone, if not for the short 2020 season and his injury. He won a single game in 2020-2021, but won 39 in the two seasons directly before and after.

Ryan and Johnson owe their 300 win status to pitching into their mid 40s. Colon missed too much time in the decade before that. If Verlander finishes like Ryan:

313-186, 4355K

That would be 3 full seasons with at least 162 IP and 12-16 wins per year, plus two shorter years after passing 300.

Johnson: 302-177, 3919K

This path would mean a big win year in 2025, though a high ERA, and injury shortened year, and another comeback at 44 to get to the finish line.

Colon: 305-194, 3850K

Big Sexy's path is 2 years as an effective innings eater, getting 15 wins each, followed by 2 years of batting practice but 7 more wins each year.

Odds are long, but it can happen, and pitchers in his situation have gotten to the finish line before.

302-177, 

On the plus side, he remains an excellent defender, and is one of the most durable players in the game. My projections have him hitting .260 with 20 homers next year. Doing that along with his defense would definitely help the team and probably motivate them to cut Anthony Rendon.

Arenado is signed for 3 more years at a total of 74 million, of which 10 million will be paid by the Rockies. His WAR projections are 2.2, 1.7, and 1.1 over that time. Since teams are paying 12.6 million per win on the free agent market, Arenado's contract value is currently at 68 million. So even if the Cardinals don't kick anything in, he's worth the money. Not a lot of surplus value but if they are highly motivated to trade him, then I'd love to see the Angels pick him up for a lower ranked prospect, maybe someone around #20 to #30 on the organization list.

It would definitely beat the option of signing Bregman, since he's likely still after a 6 or 7 year deal. Bregman was better last season but over the last 4, Arenado has a slight 1 WAR edge over Alex. They are not much different on the production, but Arenado would come at a much lower cost.

Astros indeed tried to make that exact swap and were trying to acquire Arenado to replace Bregman, but they are on his no-trade list and he vetoed it. Nolan went to high school 18 miles away from Angel Stadium. His full name is Nolan James Arenado, so I don't know if Nolan Ryan was a consideration in choosing his name. If the Angels do get him though, he will throw the ball to first baseman Nolan Ryan Schanuel. 

A few weeks ago my projections suggested his value was closer to 4 years and 70 million. I don't expect his offers to fall that low, but here's what factor into it.

1. Playing time. After missing the first half of 2024, Cole now projects for 25 starts and 149 innings. Before 2024 Cole was very durable, almost never missed a start, and his projection was for 30 games and 180 innings. Think of this as an over/under. He doesn't have much room on the over side, he led the league in innings pitched in 2023 with just 209. But there is a lot of room on the under. He could feel a twinge in his elbow next spring training and end up with surgery and zero innings next year. 

After missing half a year with a sore elbow, I have to think the odds of the under have increased.

2. He'll be 34 years old next year. While some pitchers can keep on dominating into and beyond their late 30s, history is filled with pitchers who flame out before that. Yankees would be betting on him staying healthy for ages 34-38. Even among pitchers who beat the odds and kept going, the track record for recent pitchers is not encouraging. Let's look at Max Scherzer, innings by age:

34 172

35 67 (but that's 2020, don't count that, he made all his starts)

36 179

37 145

38 152

How about Verlander?

34 205

35 214

36 223

Looks great so far

37 6

38 0

Then not so great. Max was born in 1984, Justin in 1983. Felix Hernandez is 2-3 years younger, he threw his last pitch at age 33. David Price threw 114 innings in total after age 33. Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner didn't throw any.

How about his effectiveness: Cole was very good last year, and won the Cy Young award the year before. Even with that, his strikeout rate is in decline. He peaked at 13.8 K/9 with the Astros. In 2002 he was still over 11. Last year he struck out 9.4, nearly identical to his Cy Young season (9.6).

It's not that there's anything wrong with striking out 9.5 batters per game, but it's not exceptional. The MLB average is 8.6. He gives up homers at about a league average rate, and has plus control. 

The MLB average FIP was 4.08 last year. Cole was 3.69, following a 3.16 and 3.47. I have him projected for a 3.72 FIP next year. If he does that in 150 innings, he's 6 runs better than average. That's a fine pitcher. But not one worth 36 million for even one year, let alone guarnteeing that much for 5 years. By my calculations that's a 2.2 WAR projection for next year, and less for each year after as his ERA projections get a bit worse and the innings expectation drops further.

The role of starting pitchers in today's game has shrunk. They are more risky that hitters due to the injury factor. I think everyone understands that Cole is not as valuable right now as Juan Soto. Nobody is going to offer him 500 or 700 million. What I'm saying is that Cole's value is not even in the same ballpark.

If I were running the Yankees I'd be ecstatic. Cole signed for 9 years. In almost all of these big money, long term deals, the team gets the best production on the front end of the deal and accepts the decline phase later. Cole just gave them the opportunity to take the first 5 years, which were very productive, and then get off the hook for the decline phase of the deal.

They would be wise to thank Cole for his time with the team and wish him the best in his future endeavors.

Soler does project as an offensive upgrade. He has legit power and will take a walk. He's going to strike out a lot and hit for a low average. He's been very inconsistent over the last few years. He'll be 33 next year and is an awful defender.

He could help the team in the short term, He projects better for next year than other DH options like Niko Kavadas and Ryan Noda. The problem is he's no long term solution, and having him at DH means Mike Trout stays in the outfield.

It's a difficult situation. Giving Trout the DH job might be the best chance to keep him on the field. But giving Soler playing time in the outfield means more hits falling in for the other team.

With Corbin Burnes heading to free agency, the best projected starter for Baltimore is Kyle Bradish. Kyle, however, had Tommy John surgery last summer and is probably not pitching next year. Best case he returns very late in the season, but the Orioles should go forward with a plan that he won't pitch until 2026.

The next two on the list are Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin, who are very good middle of the rotation guys and Rodriguez has a chance to turn into more than that.

Next on the list are Albert Suarez, who was a very pleasant surprise last year, and Brandon Young. Both are projected at 0.8 WAR, Young for a 4.46 ERA in 122 innings with a 105-48 K-W ratio.

Young is currently listed by MLB as the #19 prospect for the Orioles. He was signed as a free agent after the abbreviated draft in 2020, I'm sure he would have been drafted somewhere had they done a full one. At AA Bowie last year he had a 36-4 K-W ratio in 22 innings and moved up one level. He then pitched 20 games and 89 innings at AAA. He struck out a little over a batter per inning. His HR rate was good, his walk rate was OK but not great.

His fastball sits in the low 90s, an average of 92.5. He also throws a change, curve, cutter, and slider. He doesn't have a standout pitch, but his variety of pitches might allow him to contribute as a back end starter.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DJN8Q82T/

Available for Kindle or Hardcover, Paperback will be coming soon.

*All bets are off if Ohtani invents time travel, and I would not put it past him.

I did not use an MLB playing time qualification, so if a team brings a young player up early, like Zach Neto, he stays on the list until he ages off. So it's not so much a prospect list, but a young talent list. KC's is headed by a player who is not only a top 2 MVP candidate, but who has already earned a 300 million dollar extension.

Do the ratings make sense? Yes and no. I saw the Astros ranked dead last, and then compared who I have on the list to their MLB top 30 list. The Astros have only 4 players who have a positive WAR projection for their age 25 season. At least I mostly have the right guys:

Jacob Melton (MLB #1)

Brice Matthews (MLB #3)

Luis Baez (MLB #3)

Anthony Huerto (not rated).

The rankings above are from the Astros top 30 on MLB.com. Their #2 prospect is catcher Walker Janek, their first rounder in 2024. Janek does not project well because in 25 games in advanced A ball, he's hit .175. That's OK, players making their debuts don't always succeed right at the start. He's got a low reliability projection. I'm not saying he won't turn into the Astros starting catcher down the road. The stats just don't have enough info to say that right now. 

Huerto is a system shortcoming. He is only 18, has played 8 games above rookie ball. I don't use rookie ball stats in my projections, but there he hit only .151 in 40 games. If I did, he would probably not project as any kind of prospect. He'll have a very low reliability rating on the projection.

The Angels as an organization rank 20th out of 30. This is for position players only, I haven't done pitchers yet. The three best are already starters in the big leagues - Neto, Schanuel, O'Hoppe. Nelson Rada, the 18 year old who played all year in AA, and Christian Moore, the top 2024 draft pick, join them on the list.

Young position player organization ratings:

I view the projected innings pitched as an over/under. I would be happy if half the pitchers had more than my projection, and half had less. You probably won't find anyone in there with over 180 innings. Even if everything goes right, how many pitchers these days hit 200? Maybe 3 to 5, and just barely over. But it does not take much to go wrong - say one stint on the injured list, and you have no chance at 180. 

Here's the top 10, starting with the rookie phenom Paul Skenes:

Where's Ohtani? a bit below that group at 3 WAR in 133 innings. But he is a better hitter than the rest of this group.