May 31, 2010 07:29:46
Posted By Sean S
Earlier I said that I would not have updated pitcher projections ready this season. I lied. I was able figure out how to do what I needed to get them done, and now you can see them too. Hitter projections are starting to look different, substantially so in some cases, from preseason projections. In preseason I was using years 2009-08-07-06 for hitters, with 2009 weighted 100% and the others proportional to that. After updating for April, what I did was still weight 2009 as 1.00, keep all the other years, and effectively treat the first 30 games of 2010 as an extension of the 2009 season.
Now that I've got nearly a third of the new season underway, I have lowered the weight of 2009 and previous years, and dropped 2006 altogether - CHONE has typically used 4 seasons of data. CHONE was somewhat skeptical of Jason Heyward's ability to contribute right off the bat, but now is a big believer, he's one of the best in the game at only age 20.
For pitchers, the guy I wanted to see is Strasburg. At a 4.37 ERA, CHONE is obviously hedging quite a bit. Keep in mind that it knows NOTHING about his college career, and nothing about his velocity ( though I'm working on that part). It sees a great 50 innings in the minors, but doesn't know if he's really that good or just lucky.
Sorry for the lack of posts and responses to questions. One guy asked about whether he should only use preseason projections to update team odds if pitchers were not available. The answer is, have at the pitchers.