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Posted By Sean S

He's a big offensive upgrade on Paul Janish, but gives back those runs in the field.  Cabrera did not play well in the field in 2009, which should not be unexpected for a 35 year old.  I'm sure Orlando doesn't think he's lost anything, but the athlete is always the last to know.  So he waited all winter until he could find a the one team that wasn't going to move him to second or make him a utility infielder.

Janish is not any kind of a hitter, but in the field combines excellent hands (.991 fielding %, only 3 errors) with a strong arm (89 MPH fastball off the mound) for a TotalZone projection of +5. 

 
Posted By Sean S

Miguel Tejada

 

I like this move, mostly because Tejada was one of my favorites while he was with the team.  He comes back at a reasonable price and one year deal, so Josh Bell or Brandon Snyder are not blocked if they are ready in a year.  The Oriole lineup is looking decent right now.  I'm not sold on Garrett Atkins at first base, since he was horrible last season.  There's a chance he can bounce back a bit, but I've got him projected as an average hitter and you'd like more than that at first base.  I wish they had signed Russ Branyan instead, I doubt he'll command any more money than Atkins did.  Another option would be to move Nolan Reimold to first, doing so would open up left field for Felix Pie, a much better defender, and by the projections no worse a hitter than Atkins.  Tejada is projected at -2 runs defensively at third, that's just a guess based on average position conversions and a guy who's become a below average SS due to age.  Tejada seems like the kind of player (quick reactions, great arm, not much foot speed) who would take to third base well. 

 
Posted By Sean S

I've added a few projections just out of curiosity in the case that they wind up getting any chances to play in St. Louis this season.

First off, Jim Edmonds.  There has to be more error in projecting a guy who didn't play last season than there is for the average player, but in my defense I was pretty close on Sammy Sosa when he came back for the 2007 season.  The good news is Edmonds doesn't project any worse than another lefty hitting outfielder who came up with the Angels in the mid 90's, Garret Anderson.  The bad news is he doesn't project any better than Anderson.  Jim is now listed with the free agents.

Now for a real shot in the dark, Mark McGwire.  How do you project a 46 year old player who hasn't played in 9 years?  I had to modify my program just to allow it to do a projection from 2001 data, and for a scary moment, I broke the CHONE system - got an overflow error in Access if you know what I mean.  I've cleaned things up, and hopefully nothing I've done affects anyone else's projection. Big Mac's projection is on the Cardinal page.  I can't claim any accuracy, I have no freaking clue what to expect, but if this is it, might as well just let the pitcher hit for himself.

 
Posted By Sean S

I've have a study on player compensation, projected WAR, and actual WAR.  This builds on some data I received from Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts.  The article is longer than my blog permits, so here's a link to it:

 

http://www.baseballprojection.com/articles/warsalary2009.htm

 
Posted By Sean S

I've updated the free agent tracker through today's signings.  I haven't been very good about updating that this year, if I had known how much trouble it would be for me I probably would not have put it on the page.  I've made some changes, for display purposes.  I've gotten rid of most the stats on the free agent tracker page.  If you want those, just go to the player page.  If I do this again next year I'll set up an excel macro to generate and update the page.

Now that almost all of the big names have signed, you can see a big disparity between the guys who get one year and especially those who got 3 or more years.  The big 3 are Lackey, Bay, and Holliday, and those three got a total of 268 million, or 47% of all the free agent money spend on the guys I tracked.  From some of the middle class signings it appears that the going rate per win is 3.5 million.  For these three guys teams paid 6.3 million per win, given a projection of 3.7 for Lackey, 4 for Holliday, and 2.9 for Bay.  My assumption is that salaries increase 5% per year after 2010, and each player loses half a win to aging per season.  It does appear teams paid a premium for the top talent instead of a straight x dollars per win.

If you change the assumptions for Holliday to 10% inflation, and project him at 5.8 WAR in year one, you can get to the 3.5 million per win that seemed common for lessor players. 

 


 
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Sean S
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Maryland, USA

 
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