He opted out of 4 years, 144 million. Yankees can keep him if they give him 5 years and 180 million.

A few weeks ago my projections suggested his value was closer to 4 years and 70 million. I don't expect his offers to fall that low, but here's what factor into it.

1. Playing time. After missing the first half of 2024, Cole now projects for 25 starts and 149 innings. Before 2024 Cole was very durable, almost never missed a start, and his projection was for 30 games and 180 innings. Think of this as an over/under. He doesn't have much room on the over side, he led the league in innings pitched in 2023 with just 209. But there is a lot of room on the under. He could feel a twinge in his elbow next spring training and end up with surgery and zero innings next year. 

After missing half a year with a sore elbow, I have to think the odds of the under have increased.

2. He'll be 34 years old next year. While some pitchers can keep on dominating into and beyond their late 30s, history is filled with pitchers who flame out before that. Yankees would be betting on him staying healthy for ages 34-38. Even among pitchers who beat the odds and kept going, the track record for recent pitchers is not encouraging. Let's look at Max Scherzer, innings by age:

34 172

35 67 (but that's 2020, don't count that, he made all his starts)

36 179

37 145

38 152

How about Verlander?

34 205

35 214

36 223

Looks great so far

37 6

38 0

Then not so great. Max was born in 1984, Justin in 1983. Felix Hernandez is 2-3 years younger, he threw his last pitch at age 33. David Price threw 114 innings in total after age 33. Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner didn't throw any.

How about his effectiveness: Cole was very good last year, and won the Cy Young award the year before. Even with that, his strikeout rate is in decline. He peaked at 13.8 K/9 with the Astros. In 2002 he was still over 11. Last year he struck out 9.4, nearly identical to his Cy Young season (9.6).

It's not that there's anything wrong with striking out 9.5 batters per game, but it's not exceptional. The MLB average is 8.6. He gives up homers at about a league average rate, and has plus control. 

The MLB average FIP was 4.08 last year. Cole was 3.69, following a 3.16 and 3.47. I have him projected for a 3.72 FIP next year. If he does that in 150 innings, he's 6 runs better than average. That's a fine pitcher. But not one worth 36 million for even one year, let alone guarnteeing that much for 5 years. By my calculations that's a 2.2 WAR projection for next year, and less for each year after as his ERA projections get a bit worse and the innings expectation drops further.

The role of starting pitchers in today's game has shrunk. They are more risky that hitters due to the injury factor. I think everyone understands that Cole is not as valuable right now as Juan Soto. Nobody is going to offer him 500 or 700 million. What I'm saying is that Cole's value is not even in the same ballpark.

If I were running the Yankees I'd be ecstatic. Cole signed for 9 years. In almost all of these big money, long term deals, the team gets the best production on the front end of the deal and accepts the decline phase later. Cole just gave them the opportunity to take the first 5 years, which were very productive, and then get off the hook for the decline phase of the deal.

They would be wise to thank Cole for his time with the team and wish him the best in his future endeavors.

Big news of the day is Angels trading Griffin Canning to the Braves for Jorge Soler. I don't like this one.

Soler does project as an offensive upgrade. He has legit power and will take a walk. He's going to strike out a lot and hit for a low average. He's been very inconsistent over the last few years. He'll be 33 next year and is an awful defender.

He could help the team in the short term, He projects better for next year than other DH options like Niko Kavadas and Ryan Noda. The problem is he's no long term solution, and having him at DH means Mike Trout stays in the outfield.

It's a difficult situation. Giving Trout the DH job might be the best chance to keep him on the field. But giving Soler playing time in the outfield means more hits falling in for the other team.