What kind of contract will Pete get next winter?

Hard to say where the MLB teams will end up. In the past a player like this might have ended up with a real disaster of a contract, from a team perspective. I'm thinking about Ryan Howard or Chris Davis, players with little defensive value, a lot of swing and miss, who contributed mostly by hitting the ball out of the ballpark.

Recently some players like this have gotten a lot less than what they might have been hoping for. Teoscar Hernandez hasn't been quite as productive a hitter as Alonso, but he's close, runs better, and can play the outfield. He only received a one year contract last year.

Here's a 6 year projection for Alonso:

That kind of production would be worth something like:

3 years, 66 million

4 years 81 million

5 years 91 million

If Pete only ends up with a one year deal, I'd have him around 25 million.

One way to find an example of a replacement level player is to see who ends up as a minor league free agent or on the waiver wire. Cavan Biggio is now a Brave, the fourth organization he's played in this season. 

He started the season with the Blue Jays, went on waivers, and ended up being traded to the Dodgers. The Jays got a minor league pitcher for him so he wasn't truly free, but the pitcher, Braylen Fisher, is not on Toronto's top 30 prospect list by MLB.

The Dodgers released him, so he was able to go freely to the Giants. Then yesterday he went to the Braves in an exchange for cash considerations. When players move for cash considerations, the exact amount is rarely if ever reported, but I think we can assume this isn't the kind of cash that would let a team buy an Ohtani.

Looking at Biggio's career numbers I don't see replacement level at first glance. He's been exactly average as a hitter (100 OPS+), plays multiple positions, and runs the bases well. 

Most of his value though comes from his first two seasons. Between his late season callup in 2019 and the COVID season where he played all but one game, he played 159 games, hit .240 with a .368 OBP, walked 112 times, hit 24 homers, and stole 20 bases in 20 tries.

That was 4 years ago however. Since then he's played 361 games with an 89 OPS+. His power and walks are still respectable but have declined a bit, and his batting average is only .217.

Right now he makes a great face of replacement level, like the original Willie Bloomquist, because of his versatility. Doesn't matter if the position you're replacing is outfield, first, second, or third base, Biggio can play there. He's played one game at shortstop. He has never caught in professional baseball, but if you need an emergency catcher, come on, he's a Biggio.

I'm always on alert for players who can be the new face of replacement level because they have a habit of getting replaced.

Matt Chapman, over the last 4 seasons, has produced 17.5 wins above replacement. He's got a month to go so he'll probably finish around 18, but that won't change the comparables. I've found 7 players who played third base, had between 15-25 WAR for ages 28 to 31, did this after 2000, and are either retired or at least past their age 37 season.

The group:

Interesting to see Donaldson on the list. After the 2014 season Oakland traded him to Toronto for 4 prospects or young players, none of whom particularly worked out for Oakland. Donaldson of course brought the rain to Toronto's indoor stadium and was the 2015 MVP. Yet somehow the A's let history repeat, trading Chapman north of the border for 4 players. Three of the 4 are already gone from the A's organization, though it is too early to give up on Gunnar Hoglund. A 24 year old, he pitched well in AA this past year.

Some of the players didn't provide a lot of value because of injury. While Chapman has been a durable player and keeps himself in great shape, the risk can't be ignored. When you sign 32 year old players to 6 year deals, some of them aren't going to last.

If he ages like Beltre, then obviously the Giants made a great deal. There is no way that Chapman is going to play like Beltre and become a .300 hitter late in his career, but it is possible he gives you similar value. A top end projection on Chapman would probably look like a .250 average, but 80-90 walks per year and 30+ homers.

Wright, Koskie, and Glaus were the injured ones and represent disaster deals. Longoria and Donaldson had some injury issues, but did make it through to age 37 and provided some value. An outcome like theirs would be an overpay for the Giants.

A Scott Rolen outcome would be a fair deal. Not a bargain, not an overpay. He only average 108 games per year during that stretch, but played well when available.

My projection looks low, coming out to 4.5 WAR total over the length of the deal. I think he'll be better than that. But even if he hits the average of the comp group, at 10.8 WAR, that is a significant overpay.

I wish him well. If he avoids injury and keeps himself in shape the deal should turn out OK. Chapman at age 31 has the best baserunning of his career. His sprint speed , at 28.7, is as good as it's ever been at an age where most are slowing down. He's stolen 13 bases in 15 attempts, his previous career high was 4. He's a better bet than most to age well. But I would not have signed off on this contract. 

Matt Chapman will not have to opt out of his contract this offseason or field free agent offers as he resigns with the Giants for 6 years and 151 million.

He was a bargain last year, signing for only 55 million over 3 years. The deal included the opt out. He's had a great season and if he can keep it up will be well worth it, but I have my doubts on the wisdom of this deal. His projections for the next 6 years:

That does seem a bit low on both the offensive and defensive sides. For offense, it really comes down to the age. On the defensive side, BBref has him at +36 runs over the last 4 years, but I'm using Statcast defensive runs. On that, he's +21 over the same time.

I'll compare him to similar third baseman next post.