Posted By Sean S

I've done them, though it was quite a chore, more than I expected.  It takes enough effort to get the data from the MLBAM gameday files into a form that I can use for projections, plus time to try and make sure I've got players with their new teams.  I doubt I'll be able to do too much with this, I'm going to shoot for monthly updates.  I may not get to the pitchers at all this year.

 

There was a methodology change, I was doing the regression before I applied the player's current age to the projections, and this resulted in lower than they should be projections for very old and very young players.  The way I think it should be done is all players are regressed to their league's average, regardless of age. While the entire population of 42 year olds should hit worse than the population of 27 year olds, the 42 year olds who are in the major leagues should hit as well as the 27 year olds in MLB.  This has generally been true over the course of history.

 

The above is part of the reason Jason Heyward had a -6 projection in my preseason file, and now is at +13.  He's the perfect storm though, what he also has going for him is being regressed to the major league mean instead of the AA mean, and finally, he's done a pretty good job hitting for the Braves.

 

A few other guys off to great starts and upping their projections are Paul Konerko (+11 to +16) and Kelly Johnson (+2 to +8).  Most players probably haven't changed much though.  Want to know who else has a significant change?  Then look through the file, and have fun.

 
6 Comment(s):
Dayan said...
I am trying to get the WP of every game every day in the majors. I am using different projectiosn, but I have one question for you: How important it is to use updated projections? (I see you updated for hitters not pitchers, that's why I am asking, because I don't want to use updated for hitters and not pitchers)
May 14, 2010 07:36:23
 
Sean said...
If you want it in spreadsheet, just open the web page, copy and paste.
May 8, 2010 06:48:25
 
Phil D said...
Thanks. You mentioned a file; is this data available in spreadsheet form?
May 5, 2010 10:10:24
 
Sean said...
Don't put any faith in my playing time estimates. Those have not changed since opening day, except for being prorated. Take his rate stats and apply your own estimate of playing time. I don't have the time to maintain depth charts.
May 5, 2010 12:02:32
 
Ben said...
I have a question about how you determine plate at bats/plate appearances. Jason Heyward is currently projected to have 271 at bats and 304 plate appearances in 2010, in the May 1st update. But he started the season in the majors as an everyday player and has had 83 at bats through 4-May. If he continues playing full-time that works out to much closer to 480 at bats in 2010. Even if he were busted down to the minors he'd get more at bats than 271, since you DO include minor league figures in the calculations (though maybe not in Heyward's case.) I know that there are going to be a few players who fall through the cracks but Heyward is so high-profile, it seems like you're setting yourself up to mis-project his totals by a wide margin. Is he more of an injury risk than I am guessing?
May 5, 2010 10:53:26
 
Ben said...
Thanks very much for the updates, I really do hope you find the time to do the pitching side for June -- maybe you could alternate, bats then arms, every other month?
May 5, 2010 10:18:14
 
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Sean S
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