Posted By Sean S

Could projected standings be better if I only focus on starting lineups instead of taking time to do depth charts?  I think they might, especially if the person doing them is not confident in his ability to construct depth charts for 30 teams that are fair to all - I know a lot more about some teams than others.

So this new set of projections looks only at the starting lineup of every team, the top 5 pitchers (rated on runs above average in a neutral environment for 200 innings each), and the top 2 relievers (70 innings each).

The biggest differences:

1. More wins for the Angels.  I'm not unbiased here, not at all.  Angels rule and that is the number one thing I believe in.  I like these better, though still a game behind a very solid Ranger team.  Angels have been beating my projections anyway for about 6 years now, so if forced to choose I'd rather go with the one that rates them higher.  This is not a case of heads coming up 6 times in a row where you'd still bet 50/50 on the next flip.  I believe that my stats are not capturing everything the Angels do well (neither are most other people's stats), and maybe one day with more research we'll figure out what Scioscia and his boys did so well.

2. Royals lower.  76 wins didn't feel right.  Any team that starts Yuniesky Betencourt and Jason Kendall on purpose can't be expected to win too many.

3. Reds lower.  Not sure about this, I like the Reds' young talent but in any case they are probably not contenders.  I left their top pitcher, Edinson Volquez, out of the starting lineup projections, since he had Tommy John surgery and will not pitch until August, if at all in 2010.

4. Blue Jays a bit higher, Marlins a bit higher

5. Eric Bedard is not with the Mariner's top 5.  He has been a great pitcher when healthy the last 4 years, but it is uncertain when he'll return this year.  Maybe at the end of May, maybe not till August.  One thing is for certain, he won't pitch 200 innings or anything close to it.  Even when he comes back, the track record of labrum tears is not very promising.  Even if he pitches half a season, don't expect him to strike out a batter per inning with decent control.  Pitchers with shoulder issues usually have drastic decreases in performance.  Unlike elbow injuries, where a Ben Sheets will probably be his usual self in the time he's able to pitch.

6. Jordan Zimmerman also had TJS and won't pitch much or at all in 2010.  I left him in anyway, because he's the best projected pitcher on the Nationals, and they happen to have a guy with no projection (sorry, I don't do college stats) ready to fill that ace role.

I have included a spreadsheet that takes team records, plays everyone head to head, and spits out normalized standings.  You can make the bad teams .600 and the good ones .750, or the good ones .500 and bad ones .350, and you'd get the same results.  This is the corrector for the fact that projecting only starting lineups gives you across the board optimistic projections.  The key to remember is that everything is relative.

Download it, change the defense from TZ to UZR, add Johnny Damon to your outfield, use CAIRO or ZIPS projected runs instead of CHONE, pretend Bedard starts game 3 and 31 starts after that, whatever.  Have fun with it.  Don't complain to me like a whiny little beeatch if you don't like my standings.  Create your own.  Anybody who wants to use this tool to create projected custom standings and put them on the internet is free to do so.


14 Comment(s):
Air Jordan said...
What a great blog! There have a chance that we can have an furthur exchanges and cooperation. I will always pay attention to your blog.
March 27, 2010 08:46:54
Air Jordan said...
Nice blog! There have a chance that we can have an furthur exchanges. May be we have common interests. Let's keep in touch. Also I will always pay attention to your blog.
March 26, 2010 08:10:58
Pronk said...
Sean, thanks for the new spreadsheet. Awesome.
February 28, 2010 04:35:21
Sean said...
Just put an new spreadsheet up.
February 28, 2010 12:49:10
Dave G said...
Hey Sean, Will you be releasing a new downloadable set of projections post the 1/3/10 download that's available now?
February 25, 2010 10:47:27
Sean said...
Yes, either defense or any adjustments to the system I've made since January.
February 20, 2010 06:20:58
Zach said...
Hm, well, Fangraphs says you have him projected for a 2.97 ERA. On your team page, Lincecum is projected to have 196 IP and 167 hits allowed, but on Fangraphs it says 197 IP and 162 hits (SO and BB are the same). Your Jan. 3 spreadsheet has Lincecum with 162 hits allowed and a 2.97 ERA as well. Is the difference in those two projections a defense adjustment?
February 18, 2010 05:24:26
Sean said...
He's not. I clicked on the Giant's page and saw an ERA projection of 3.12 for Timmah. Is the 2.97 ERA in one of the spreadsheets? In any case, the team pages will always have the latest updated values.
February 18, 2010 08:11:47
Zach said...
I have a question about your ERA projections, mainly for Tim Lincecum. When I run a base runs calculation for Lincecum's projected stats, I get an ERA of about 3.10. Seeing as how your projections have the Giants defense as below average, I don't understand how Lincecum is projected to have a 2.97 ERA.
February 17, 2010 06:17:16
Sean said...
The defense is per 150 games, same as the R150 for hitters, which is based on neutral statistics. For pitchers, there is a new column "nERA" which is park and defense neutral.
February 16, 2010 11:08:39
Luke said...
Hey, love the site and all you do here. I've done projections too based on 25-man rosters with some of PECOTA mixed in. (your standings ring true to me, though a few differences--I'm lower on the Angels and higher on the Twins by a few wins each (Twins are my bias), have the Red Sox and Phillies winning the Easts, like the As a bit more, and think the Indians are really wretched). 2 questions. 1. are your "def" figures listed on your projection spreadsheet over 150 games or 162 games or based on the playing time projection or what? 2. Is there a way to get context-neutral projections out of your system (I'm looking for ERA and OPS) that don't bake in park factor or league/divisional difficulty? Thanks again and treat Torii well for us, will ya?
February 15, 2010 07:33:55
Sean said...
Thanks for the suggestion. If I add 1 more reliever the assumptions (5 starters at 200 ip, 3 rel at 70 ip) would cover 85% of actual innings. Assuming fulltime PA for starters would cover 85% of plate appearances, so that would match.
February 11, 2010 12:53:01
rwperu34 said...
A suggestion to improve this method for next year. Extend the starting rotation to six or seven deep, add in an extra bullpen arm or two, and count the top one or two bench players. Still simple because there's no depth chart, but gives a little more credit, but not too much, to teams that have depth.
February 9, 2010 06:33:43
Ben said...
Nice work with the updated projection, thanks for taking the time to address the request. Since this all came about seemingly because Mariners fans are unhappy with your official projection... I am a lifelong Seattle Mariners fan but I can accept that the team is still in the process of rebuilding - almost completely from scratch - after the Bill Bavasi era. We'd like to think that Zduriencik and Wakamatsu will have the team contending this year -- and that idea is being reinforced by media hype... But it's pretty improbable that it happens until the team develops or buys more power bats. (And the bullpen is still a work in progress.) We should be ecstatic to have another winning season (82+ wins, not necessarily a playoff appearance.) Making the post-season is a real stretch. Keep up the great work, and thanks again!
February 9, 2010 11:35:08
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Sean S
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