Posted By Sean S

My team projections, published a few days ago, are a bit of a black box.  I take the player projections and adjust them by my depth charts, which are not published and I have no intention of publishing them.  The reason being is that they aren't going to be that good.  I don't want to publish depth charts and have people pick them apart, telling me "You've got player A getting 300 AB but the manager hates his guts and he'll be in AAA all year" or some such.  I might investigate that and find it to be true, value could be added.

The problem is, I don't have time for that.  I am not going to spend a month of my baseball researching time trying to get the team projections just right.  So I call them just good enough and go with them.  I've been using the same process for a few years now and I seem to get the standings as close as anybody else.  (Don't take my word for it.)

I've thought of a way to make the predictions more open source, simpler, and it should be unbiased as well.  I thank Dave Cameron and his recent comments about the Mariner offense for the idea.  Take the R150 projections for the expected starting lineup.  Assume that everyone is healthy for every team, and that bench players taking up the other 12 games are average (or at least the same for every team).  I'm thinking for the pitcher counterpart I should look at 5 starting pitchers (figure runs above average for 200 innings) per team and maybe the top 2 relievers (since they will be the ones with the most leverage).

At this point we are deep into a Lake Wobegone league, where every team is above average (well, sorry Kansas City).  But that's OK.  Take these super-optimistic teams, play them in a schedule against each other using the odds ratio, and see what W-L records result.  This is your correction, and all the teams together will have to add up to .500

I will do this for both leagues, and make it open source.  Maybe even have it done in the next two days since I'm still snowed in.  But I will start with the American League offense, from the mighty Yankees at the top, to the very good top rivals in the AL East and Minnesota Twins, to good offenses in Anaheim and Cleveland, all the way down to the pathetic offenses.

There will be no secrets here, you can click on every team page and add them up yourself, but in case of any confusion I will later publish a spreadsheet telling who I have picked as the starter for each team and position.


Yankees +167

Ray +136

Twins +127

Red Sox +120

Indians +101 

Angels +98

Rangers, Orioles +60

Jays +30

White Sox +28

A's +20

Mariners +11

Tigers +8

Royals -23

1 Comment(s):
Aaron B. said...
You mean pathetic offense (singular), no? ;-)
February 8, 2010 11:38:07
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Sean S
Maryland, USA


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