Posted By Sean S

I've added a few projections just out of curiosity in the case that they wind up getting any chances to play in St. Louis this season.

First off, Jim Edmonds.  There has to be more error in projecting a guy who didn't play last season than there is for the average player, but in my defense I was pretty close on Sammy Sosa when he came back for the 2007 season.  The good news is Edmonds doesn't project any worse than another lefty hitting outfielder who came up with the Angels in the mid 90's, Garret Anderson.  The bad news is he doesn't project any better than Anderson.  Jim is now listed with the free agents.

Now for a real shot in the dark, Mark McGwire.  How do you project a 46 year old player who hasn't played in 9 years?  I had to modify my program just to allow it to do a projection from 2001 data, and for a scary moment, I broke the CHONE system - got an overflow error in Access if you know what I mean.  I've cleaned things up, and hopefully nothing I've done affects anyone else's projection. Big Mac's projection is on the Cardinal page.  I can't claim any accuracy, I have no freaking clue what to expect, but if this is it, might as well just let the pitcher hit for himself.

2 Comment(s):
Sean said...
That's probably not fair. I had his 2001 stats, run through the projection program and aged 9 years. But 2001 (.187) did not represent his true ability back then. So I added 2000 and 1999. But it's still being aged 9 years, and the system can't account for rust. Still, a -27 projection is better than a -50, but I would be completely shocked if he were able to contribute more than a publicity stunt if activated.
January 20, 2010 05:55:33
vivaelpujols said...
You're killing me here Rally. -50 runs for Mac?!?!
January 19, 2010 09:00:05
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Sean S
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