Posted By Sean S

They have been updated through 2009.  See where Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter, and A-Rod rank once their 2009 seasons are added in.  Some players, like Griffey, Randy Johnson, and Jason Giambi, showed up for 2009 but added little above replacement level.

The top 500 pitcher and hitter pages now show members of the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit.  Looks like the best players eligible who have not been inducted to either hall are a pair of 1970's 3B, Buddy Bell and Sal Bando.  They seem like borderline guys to me.  On the pitching side it's Rick Reuschel.  When he was active I didn't expect that he'd be a Hall of Famer, and he won't be, but he's got a decent case for induction to the Hall of Merit sooner or later.

13 Comment(s):
Sean said...
Probably a 7 win season would be a typical MVP candidate. Maybe 6 for Cy Young. Postseason would be possible, but I don't think I'll get to it any time soon.
January 28, 2010 08:01:18
Craig said...
Sorry... one more... What is a Cy Young-caliber season for WAR? Thanks again!
January 26, 2010 04:17:48
Craig said...
Hi, Sean. Great site! Thanks for your efforts. Two quick questions: (1) Bill James considers a 30-Win Share season to be an MVP-caliber season. In your estimate, what is an MVP-season for WAR? (2) Is there any hope of seeing post-season WAR? Is it possible?
January 26, 2010 04:05:34
A.J. said...
No paragraph breaks? Ugh. That just looks like a mess.
December 14, 2009 07:03:06
A.J. said...
Quoting Joe Dimino in post 54 of the Hall of Merit's Rick Reuschel thread: WAR are then converted to Pennants Added, straight from Baseball Prospectus 2002. To get Pennants Added in Excel, you use the Normal Distribution Function (NORMDIST). The formula is: NORMDIST(WAR,(162*(avg. Pennant WPct - .500)),((162*(((St.Dev Pennant winners ^ 2)+(St.Dev All Teams ^ 2)) ^.5 )),TRUE) Through 1996 (for 1997 voting), the average Pennant WPct was .620. I define a pennant as a playoff team. This means league champion from 1876-1968, Division Champion from 1969-present, all wild-card teams). The average team is .500. The st. dev. of pennant winners is .0490, the st. dev. of all teams is .0920.
December 14, 2009 06:54:18
Sean said...
There are a few things I'm not dealing with in the WAR pages. One is adjusting season length, and another is a quality adjustment for improvement over time. For the most part seasons have gotten longer as the years go by, so these factors are working in opposite directions, though I won't go so far as to say they cancel out. I could consider a pennants added, though I'm not sure how to calculate it. Is there a commonly accepted equation? One problem is that while you might want to do this adjustment for hitters, assuming a great hitter who plays 80 games would have played 150 in 2009, you can't assume the same for pitchers. Part of the reason the schedules were shorter back then was because of a lot of off days in between, which allowed pitchers to pitch in a greater % of team games.
December 13, 2009 09:31:30
A.J. said...
Would you ever consider adding something like Pennants Added to the WAR leaderboard? The placing of the short-season players always strikes me as incongruous.
December 12, 2009 08:25:22
Sean said...
I think Ted, Lou, and the rest of the W players are fixed now.
December 7, 2009 06:18:31
Sean S said...
I can add Devine. Sounds like my update did not go smoothly. I'll need to check those out. They'll be fixed sooner or later.
December 7, 2009 05:32:23
AC said...
Might I kindly request a Joey Devine projection?
December 7, 2009 03:30:24
MattNC said...
Hey, Sean. I heard back from Neil at Baseball Reference, in response to my suggestion that they add your WAR values to their HOF statistics section on the player pages. He indicates that they will indeed be putting WAR (both sesonal and career) on their player pages and leader boards. I'm not sure of that means your values (which seem to go back the farthest in time) or fangraphs' values, or some other WAR calculations. You should probably contact Sean F or Neil. BTW, Ted Williams' player card is messed up on your Top 500 list. His career stats currently end in 1954, and he has -4 career batting runs. I mean, the man has suffered enough recently. Also, Lou Whittaker's Top 500 link leads to the very modest career card of one Kirby White, so you should fix that, too. Your top 500 lists are fascinating, as they give us a very different way to evaluate players. Surprises include players like Mike Mussina (only 67th all-time in pitcher's HOF monitor, but 24th all-time on your WAR list among pitchers) and Graig Nettles (298th in HOF monitor, but 99th all-time in position WAR, mostly due to his fielding). Even more on-obscure players like George Davis hold surprises: only 81 221st) in HOF monitor, but 25th all-time on your WAR list. Thanks for working so hard to create an excellent website. Best, Matt
December 7, 2009 12:34:53
Sean S said...
Yes. Should be soon.
December 7, 2009 11:11:17
lar said...
Nice. Does this mean we can get excited about having a 2009 update of the downloads soon?
December 7, 2009 10:05:01
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Sean S
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