Posted By Sean S

I have him as a +4 runs per season hitter, with a rate stat line of 276/375/367.  His baserunning has been worth 5-7 runs per year from 2005 to 2008.  Baseball Prospectus has him at another +4 runs for 2009.  The average is about +5.5 per year, given age I'll estimate +4 for 2010.  His defense, according to Fangraphs UZR, has been excellent the last 2 years as a 3rd baseman.  A projection puts him about a +5 fielder.  Replacement level is 20 runs below average per 150 games.


Add it all up, and he's 35 runs per year above replacement per 150 games.  Since I have him projected to play 137 (he's had some injuries here and there) that gets knocked down to 3.2 wins.  On a 1 year deal and 4.4 million per win, that is worth 14 million.


I don't know what's going to happen to baseball salaries but my guess is that the days of 10% salary hikes every year are over.  I'm assuming it increases by 100K per year over the next 5, but plug in your own numbers if you disagree.  Assuming a decline of 0.5 wins per year due to age, he's worth 36 million over 3 years or 50 over 5, which from what I read is what he's asking for.


His value is greatest if he plays 3rd base.  As a corner outfielder, if I assume he'd be +5 runs on defense, he'd only be worth 25/3 or 32/5 because of the greater  offense expected from the position.


For the Angels, I'm torn.  I hate to see Figgins go but it's time to give Brandon Wood a shot to play.  He projects as an average overall player right now, but being only 25 for 2010, he should be the better player by 2012.

6 Comment(s):
Sean said...
WAR is not adjusted for season length. If you want to contact me, rallymonkey (numeral five) at comcast dot net.
November 23, 2009 06:45:37
James Newburg said...
Sean, I was trying to find your contact info. I had a question about your WAR statistic. Is it adjusted for season length?
November 22, 2009 12:04:18
Sean S said...
Glad to be of help. Dot easy did it all for me, I don't even have to know what RSS stands for to have one. I pride myself on having state of the art technical skills for 1995.
November 19, 2009 11:21:16
AC said...
Indeed it is. Serves me right for trying to accomplish tasks pre-coffee.
November 19, 2009 10:43:06
Sean S said...
I've never used RSS myself. As you can see by my site I'm pretty low tech, all about the data and try to keep the presentation simple. But there is an RSS link at the bottom of the site. Is that what you're looking for?
November 19, 2009 08:56:33
AC said...
The existence of this blog pleases me. Is there any chance we might get an RSS feed?
November 19, 2009 07:54:31
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Sean S
Maryland, USA


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