November 17, 2009 08:36:03
Posted By Sean S
First note: I've made a correction which results in numbers for many of the minor leaguers having slightly lower projections. I've seen a few comments, here and other places, suggesting that I've got some of the minor leaguers too high. Andy Tracy takes a huge hit with the update, but mostly because he's projected as a free agent now instead of in homer haven Philadelphia.
I decided to look at how my projections for AAAA hitters last season turned out. I looked for players who fir these criteria: 1) at least 27 years old. 2)at least -5 runs per 150 and 3)most of the data feeding the projection comes from the minors. The players who fit this group include, based on most playing time in 2009:
Nelson Cruz, Garrett Jones, Ryan Raburn, Micah Hoffpauir, Brian Buscher, Oscar Salazar, Josh Whitesell, Randy Ruiz, Jeff Bailey, Luis Montanez, and Matt Murton. Those are the ones with the most playing time in 2009. Some others on the list, like Victor Diaz, Josh Phelps, Brian Myrow, and Mike Hessman, didn't play at all. The projected OPS of this group, of all AAAA hitters identified is .766. The projected OPS of the ones listed above who got at least 50 PA in 2009 is .778. What was the average OPS for the group? .820. Of course, guys like Nelson Cruz, establishing himself as a good player gets a lot more playing time than a AAAA guy who struggled like Whitesell. So if I take the unweighted average, I get .780.
Looks like the projections were dead on as to the overall ability of this group of players.