Posted By Sean S

Here are some guys who stick out to me as having surprisingly good projections.  One is Brian Myrow, who has been one of the better minor league hitters around for close to a decade.  He'll be 33 but has only about 50 big league at bats to his name.  Every year in the minors he hits for a good average, an OBP well above .400, and 10-15 homerun power.  He actually projects as the best hitter on the Pirate's roster.  At least I think he's there, he finished the season with Indianapolis, but might be a minor league free agent. 

Myrow's projection is 275/376/435, maybe he'd get a chance if Garrett Jones, another AAAA player who got a shot last year, has trouble in his second go-around.  Or maybe he'll wind up like Roberto Petagine, a great "what if?" story.

 Shelley Duncan projects to a solid 257/340/512.  He actually got a chance to play a little bit in 2007, and hit very well in a Kevin Maas/Shane Spencer kind of way.  Back in the minors almost all of last year, he hit another 30 homers.  His projection of 16 runs above average is comparable to the DH options on the free agent market.  It might make sense for the Yankees to give Duncan the job on the cheap, that way if Posada or A-Rod have injuries and need to DH you aren't wasting an expensive bat on the bench.  Instead of spending 10-12 million for a left fielder and a DH, just go to the top of the market and get Holliday as your left fielder.  Duncan is already 30, so he's not a long term option, but probably has as much to offer from here to the end of his career as Hideki Matsui has from age 36 to the end of his career.

11 Comment(s):
Pete said...
I've been following Brian Myrow since he was on the Yankees, good call with him Sean. I think his age has always held him back, because he always put up the stats. I think he could at least be a pinch hitter in the National League.
November 19, 2009 09:03:06
Sean S said...
The expanded links are not ready at this point. I'm not sure when I'll have them ready, or if they will be in the same form as last year. It all depends on how much time I can put into it. I've moved from an excel system to a database out of necessity, but rebuilding all the pages is not an easy task. Duncan probably won't get that much playing time in the majors. These projections try to answer "how much could a player play, based on past playing time" and not how much he'll play next year in the major leagues.
November 17, 2009 10:14:37
Rob in CT said...
257/340/512 in significant playing time would shock me. I'd buy that as his line against LHP in a platoon role, but overall, hitting consistently against RHP? Really? That would be pretty cool. But I sure wouldn't want to bet on it. Sure, the Yankees could go with a Duncan/Hinkse or Duncan/Miranda platoon for DH. There are two problems with that approach: 1) You use two roster spots. 2) I think there is more risk involved with those guys, even accounting for injury risk for a guy like Matsui. Holliday + no-name DH platoon may in fact > Damon + Matsui resigned. If that's the choice, I'll take the former. But I think Holliday + resigning Matsui is possible, and I'd prefer that.
November 17, 2009 09:03:47
wallypipp said...
Where is the "expanded" link? How do you translate to WAR?
November 16, 2009 09:01:00
Red Sox Talk said...
My projections have Duncan down for .258/.336/.477, so I'm with you on that one. It would make sense for some team to DH him, but not the Yankees. Big market teams like that have no reason to give playing time to an unproven quad-A guy, which is why Duncan has never gotten much playing time.
November 16, 2009 05:50:44
Sean said...
Had Eric Hinske not had some success early and earn the proven major leaguer label, he's about the same quality as a lot of the AAAA sluggers. He'd be the kind of guy we say "why doesn't he get a shot" instead of "why do they keep playing Hinske". Hinkse or Duncan (or maybe a platoon) makes more sense than signing a fulltime DH, especially since you may wind up needing the DH spot for Posada or A-Rod at some point.
November 16, 2009 01:24:51
Preston said...
I thought Shelly Duncan would finally get some AB's this year... and then we traded for Eric Hinske. I doubt the Yankees will use him this year they could bring Hinske back for under 2 millions (cheap for the Yanks) and he's around the same age, more proven, a better fielder and most importantly he's left handed. Which is a big plus in Yankee Stadium.
November 16, 2009 12:36:19
Toffer Peak said...
The RSS feed is in the bottom right of the page. I'm looking forward to following this blog and seeing your insights into CHONE.
November 16, 2009 11:38:39
Sean said...
I think there's a little more risk with a guy like Duncan. He might strike out 40% of the time and be useless. But then, there's risk in older guys like Matsui, Guerrero, Thome to fill the DH role, they could prove to be washed up (like Giambi last year) or get hurt. Jonny Gomes was in a similar spot as Duncan last year, the Red signed him for nothing and he turned in a fine season. There's risk in any decision they could make, I say might as well take the option that is essentially free, and spend big elsewhere (Holliday).
November 16, 2009 10:15:41
erik said...
Can we get an RSS feed for the blog, pretty please?
November 16, 2009 08:44:56
Max said...
Shelly Duncan as a right handed bat to play DH is an interesting idea. I've been looking for possible right handed power hitters on the FA market, who wouldn't be expensive, while Shelly Duncan was right there to find in the organization. My only worry would be Shelly's inability to hit a major league breaking ball may make him a AAAA player. He's definitely a dead red fastball hitter. Great start to the blog, loved the first entry.
November 15, 2009 11:06:02
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Sean S
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