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Posted By Sean S

I put up this page showing projected wins above replacement for selected free agents, and as they sign I'll show how many dollars each signing is paying per win.  Some of the infielder signings seem really low considering the quality of the player (Polanco, Scutaro).

I left off the ones who project as below replacement level, and the ones who are not established major leaguers (like Shelley Duncan and Jeff Fiorentino).  They probably aren't going to sign more than minor league deals.

For the pitchers I'm not considering relievers, as leverage screws things up anyway, and it's hard for a projection system to make distinctions between them anyway.

I'm curious whether players are paid on a linear scale based on their runs above replacement, or if some positions seem to be under or over paid.  Maybe the position adjustments don't reflect the way teams value these guys.  We'll see.

Posted By Sean S

Defensive projections have been added for all players.  These are based on major and minor league totalzone ratings.  I may look into incorporating the Fan Scouting report ratings, though it was tough enough to set this up as it is.


It's an imperfect measure, so some of the defensive ratings are going to look wrong (Aybar at -2 for example).  But it should give a reasonable estimate most of the time, and for over 1300 players.

Posted By Sean S

Wins and losses are not available for pitchers yet, but will be once a few more free agents sign and I can estimate team lineups and offense.


The big signing of the day is Placido Polanco to the Phillies.  For 3 years, 18 million he seems like a bargain - that is less than an average fulltime player generally gets these days and Polanco has been an above average performer for years.  He'll be moving back to third.  His UZR per 150 games, on Fangraphs, shows +10 runs at 2nd, and +9.9 runs as a third baseman.  The only concern is he last played third regularly 4 years ago.  Will he still be a plus defender there?  My guess is he isn't bothered by the move at all, and provides a nice offensive upgrade over Happy Pete.



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Sean S
Maryland, USA


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